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README.md
The dataset is NBA statistical data, each column is average statistic number for past ten games. we combine it with bet365s handicap data. Last two columns are response variables.
Firstly, we have to understand how sportsbooks earn the money. Generally speaking, most time they earn their profit by collecting commissions on bets. For instance, if you wager a 100 dollars bet and odd is 0.97, you will get 197 dollars where sportsbook gets 3 dollars profit. If there is a Basketball game Team A versus Team B, they will try to do is make mounts of betting money are balanced paced on Team A versus team B, which will maximize their profit; otherwise they may face a significant risk.
How sportsbooks do to balance the betting money is very simple, which is handicap. For example, they will turn the A versus B in A needs to win B by 3 points handicap. If bettors keep on betting the same side, sportsbooks will keep increasing the Handicap until bets balancing on both sides.
Although it seems like sportsbooks have a hundred percent chance of winning, many of them ended up bankrupt every year. This is due to the reasons below. Since the sports betting market is fairly competitive, a sportsbook would not change their odds obviously different from others. Otherwise, they will lose their customers overnight. The only option they have is to change the handicap of games to balance their bets. However, if one sportsbook's handicap is significantly different from its competitors, it would be another problem which would make them bankrupt; Furthermore, big sports leagues like NFL, NBA and MLB, their information is public and real-time spread. It cannot be manipulated like the stock market.
Marcus
melo15best@hotmail.com
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