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README.md
Any form of currency that only exists digitally relying on cryptography to prevent counterfeiting and fraudulent transactions is defined as cryptocurrency. Bitcoin was the very first Cryptocurrency. It was invented in 2009 by an anonymous person, or group of people, who referred to themselves as Satoshi Nakamoto. When someone sends a bitcoin (or a fraction of a bitcoin) to someone else, “miners” record that transaction in a block and add the transaction to a digital ledger. These blocks are collectively known as the blockchain – an openly accessible ledger of every transaction ever made in bitcoin. Blockchains are distributed across many computers so that the record of transactions cannot be altered. Only 21 million bitcoins can ever be mined and about 17 million have been mined so far. Bitcoin is mined, or created, by people (miners) getting their computers to solve mathematical problems, in order to update and verify the ledger.
The value of bitcoin is determined by what people are willing to pay for it, and is very volatile, fluctuating wildly from day to day. In April 2013, the value of 1 bitcoin (BTC) was around $100 USD. At the beginning of 2017 its value was $1,022 USD and by the 15th of December it was worth $19,497. As of the 3rd of March 2018, 1 BTC sells for $11,513 USD. So, the time series analysis of bitcoin series is very challenging.
The following dataset is the daily closing price of bitcoin from the 27th of April 2013 to the 3rd of March 2018. Source: coinmarketcap.com
The dataset is focused on has gathered from coinmarketcap.com (https://coinmarketcap.com/). includes he daily closing price of bitcoin from the 27th of April 2013 to the 3rd of March 2018 and is available in the csv file Bitcoin_Historical_Price.csv
This Model includes a mean absolute scaled error (MASE), for each of model fits and forecasts. Using the real values of daily bitcoin for 10 days of forecast period (4th - 13th of March 2018).
This model is used to analyze the data, accurately predict the value of bitcoin for the next 10 days. The model includes descriptive analysis, proper visualization, model specification, model fitting and selection, and diagnostic checking.
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