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* 以上分析是由系统提取分析形成的结果,具体实际数据为准。
README.md
The strategic board game *The Settlers of Catan* is a modern classic. [Introduced in 1995, it has sold over 22 million copies worldwide.][1] Learning how to play the game well requires an inherent understanding of probability, economics, game theory, and social interactions.
This is my personal dataset of 50 4-player games I played on playcatan.com in 2014. Using the ingame statistics page and a spreadsheet, I logged starting position choices, the distribution of dice rolls, and how each player spent the resources they acquired by the end of the game. Note, of course, because this dataset only consists of my games, any analysis done is most relevant for games involving me...
My personal analysis of this dataset consisted of a best subsets regression, and resulted a 4-variable model that likely overfitted, but managed to ascertain the winner correctly, in 40 of 50 games.
**Questions to possibly consider:**
How much luck is involved in winning a Catan game?
Does starting position matter? If so, what starting settlements lead to success from each position?
How much information on the eventual winner can be gained from starting position/settlements alone?
*By looking at postgame stats, what leads to a win? Can these statistics be a guide for ingame strategy?*
**Data details/guide:**
gameNum - each game I played has 4 corresponding rows, 1 per player.
player - the starting position corresponding to each row
points - how many points the player ended the game with (the game is won with 10 or more)
me - the position I played during the game
2, 3, ..., 12 - how many rolls of each value occurred during the game (game is played with 2 dice)
settlement1, settlement2 - each starting settlement is logged as 3 pairs of [number, resource]:
L = lumber
C = clay
S = sheep
W = wheat
O = ore
3G = 3:1 general port
2(X) = 2:1 port for resource X
D = desert
***EX:*** in game 1, player 1's first settlement was on a 6-lumber, 3-clay, and 11-clay.
production - total cards gained from settlements and cities during game
tradeGain - total cards gained from peer AND bank trades during game
robberCardsGain - total cards gained from stealing with the robber, plus cards gained with non-knight development
cards. A road building card is +4 resources.
totalGain - sum of previous 3 columns.
tradeLoss - total cards lost from peer AND bank trades during game
robberCardsLoss - total cards lost from robbers, knights, and other players' monopoly cards
tribute - total cards lost when player had to discard on a 7 roll (separate from previous column.)
totalLoss - sum of previous 3 columns.
totalAvailable - totalGain minus totalLoss.
I only ask that if you produce a good model, you share it with me! Please don't hesitate to ask any clarifying questions.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catan
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