Forecasters’ predictions were not very good in general: two out of four forecasts were outside the 90% credible intervals.

However, they were better than my personal predictions, and I suspect better than the median prediction of ML researchers (if the latter had been preregistered).

Specifically, progress on ML benchmarks happened significantly faster than forecasters expected. But forecasters predicted faster progress than I did personally, and my sense is that I expect somewhat faster progress than the median ML researcher does.

Progress on a robustness benchmark was slower than expected, and was the only benchmark to fall short of forecaster predictions. This is somewhat worrying, as it suggests that machine learning capabilities are progressing quickly, while safety properties are progressing slowly.